Thursday, August 20th 2009 Weather Outlook

20 08 2009

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Ohio Valley/Plains System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will push into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Ohio Valley and Southern Plains, associated with the system pushing into the Great Lakes. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. In the wake of Morning cloud cover and convection, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-45KT. Severe storms will develop during the Afternoona head of the cold front in Ohio and far Southeast Michigan. These storms will push eastward through the day and into the evening, before weakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further south along  and ahead of the cold front from Kentucky down into Texas, some storms will become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2500, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Limited shear, forcing and Mornign convection persisting longer over this area, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. On the backside of the system in portions of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa, a few storms may become severe. as a vort max swing sin ebhind the system, along with cool air aloft and limite dinstibility, which may lead to the possibility of isolated damaging winds and hail. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.

sev 619


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