Monday, August 10th 2009 Weather Outlook

11 08 2009

Monday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Plains System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will push into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likle yacross portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley and Plains, associated with a system pushing through the Great Lakes. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Conneticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jerser, MAryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and Arkansas. Across the cold front from New York back into Indiana; cAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s o f-8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop ahead of the main cold front in the Afternoon, from New York down into Indiana. These storms will push eastward into the Evening, before weakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats fromt he severe storms will be damaging winds, haila nd an isolated tornado. Along the cold front from Southwest Indiana through Illinois and Eastern Missouri, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s o f-5 and effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. A weakenign cold pool and meso high from Sunday Night MCS across weakening across the area and associated subsidence, will limit the overall threat and coverage of  severe weather across this area ahea dof the main cold front. The main threats from any storms that do become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further west along the front from Western Missouri back into Colorado; CAPE values iwll be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s o f-10 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. An MCS may be ongoing in the Morning across Western Kansas, some of the storms may be severe. This complex will likely re-strengthern with diurnal warming and the gain of instibility, also other severe sotrms will develop along and ahead of the cold front from Missouri back into Colorado. These storms will push southeastward into the Evening, before weakenign as diurinal cooling sets in. The main threats from any severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In portions of the Southeast, Afternoon showers and storms will be likely. Soem storms may become severe. Limited shear and forcing will limit the overall threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday.

sev 608

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