Sunday, August 2nd 2009 Weather Outlook

1 08 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast System, Plains/Midwest System

12:00AM

On Sunday a system will push into the Northeast, while a system pushes through the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, associated with a system pushing through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina . A large area of showers and storms will be located from New York down into the Carolinas, along a cold front. Ahead of this complex, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk shear values of 25-50KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Pennsylvanina down into North Carolina ahead of the Morning complex and out ahead of the cold front. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore or weakening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further southwest along the front from South Carolina into Texas, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30KT. Limited shear and forcing will limit the overall threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Plains, a system will move in brining showers and storms to portions of the Plains and Midwest. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. CAPE values will be around 4000 J/KG, LI’s of -10 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. Severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front from Minnesota into South Dakota and North Dakota. These storms will push east-southeast into the Evening. The storms may form into an MCS during the Evening, as the continue east-southeast overnight will some severe threat. A CAP may limit the overall severe potential, but there is enough confidence to issue a slight risk for widepsread severe weather. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further south along the Front Range, from Colorado and Kansas down into Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, a few storms may become severe with an upsloap flow in place. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon with aide of an upsloap flow in portions of Colorado and New Mexico, some of these storms may be severe. These storms will push eastward into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The lack of forcing will limit the overall coverage and threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Sunday.

sev 593

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