Tuesday, September 1st 2009 Weather Outlook

31 08 2009

Tuesday’s Weather Outlook; Southeast System, West/Plains System

11:30PM

On Tuesday, a system will cotninue to affect the Southeast, while a system continue to push throgh the West. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Southeast, as a frontal boundary continues to slowly move through. A few storms may become severe in the Aftenroon and Evening. As CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 25KT. The lack of shear and focring, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. In the West, a system will contine to slowly move through the region. Showers and storms iwll be likely in portions of the West and Wesnter Plains, assocaited with this system. A few storms may become severe in portions of the Inter-Mountain West and Front Range, during the Afternoon and Evening. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effecive Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. The lack of forcing and limit moisture, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday.

sev 635





Monday, August 31st 2009 Weather Outlook

30 08 2009

Monday’s Weather Outlook; Southeast System, West/Plains System

11:30PM

On Monday, a system will continue to affect the Southeast, while a system continue to push through the West. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Southeast, as a frontal boundary continues to slowly work through the region. A few storms may become severe during the Afternoon and Evening. As CAPe values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30Kt. The lack of shear and forcing, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, a system will cotninue to slowl ywork through the region. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the West and Westenr Plains, associated with this system. Some of the storms may become severe during the Afternoon and Evening along the Front Range and in portions of the Inter-Mountain West. As CAPe values will be arond 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. The lack of forcing and limited moisture, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Monday.

sev 632





Sunday, August 30th 2009 Weather Outlook

30 08 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Southeast System, West System

1:15AM

On Sunda,y a system will continue to push through the Northeast and into Southern Canada, while another system continues to move through the West. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Northeast and Southeast, as a system pushes through the Northeast and Sothern Canada. A few storms may become severe near the cold front in portions of the Southeast. As CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. The lack of  forcing, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, a slow moving system will continue to push through the area, bringing a chance of showers and storms to the West and Front Range. A few storms may become severe across portions of the Inter-Mountain West and Front Range. As CAPE values will be around 1000 J/JG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. The lack of forcing and instibility, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. the main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Sunday.

sev 631





Saturday, August 29th 2009 Weather Outlook

29 08 2009

Saturday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Glf Coast System, West System, Extra-Tropical Storm Danny

12:00PM

On Saturday, a system will push towards towards the Northeast, while Extra-Tropical Storm Danny work along the Northeast Coast as a system pshes through the West. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Sotheast and Gulf Coast, associated with  a system pushing into the Northeast. A few storms may become severe along the cold front from New York down into the Tennesse Valley and back into Texas. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values p to 35KT. The lack of shear and forcing will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Extra-Tropical Storm Danny will work up the Northeast Coast through the day, bringing the chance of heavy rains to costal areas. In the West, a slow moving system will work through the area, bringing a chance of showers and storms to the area. A few storms may become severe across portions of the Inter-Mountain West and Front Range. As CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -5 and Effective Blk Shear value up to 50KT. The lack of forcing and instibility, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Saturday.

sev 630





Friday, August 28th 2009 Weather Outlook

28 08 2009

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes System, Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast System, Northwest System, Tropical Storm Danny

11:45AM

On Friday, a system will cotnine to psh through the Great Lakes, while a system pushes throgh the Ohio Valley and a new system pshes into the Northwest. Showers and an isolated storm will be likely in portions of the Northwest, as a new system pshes into the region. In the Great Lakes, asystem will contine to push through. Bringing a chance of showers and storms to the area. Another system will continue to push eastward into the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast, associated with this system. A few storms may become severe ahead of the cold front from the Ohio Valley back down into Texas. As CAPE values will be arond 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values p to 30KT. Limited shear and forcing, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Along the East Coast, from the Northeast down into the Southeast; heavy rain and storms will be likely as an influx of moisture moves in, associated with Tropical Storm Danny, located several hundred miles south of the Carolina Coast. A few storms may become severe from the Mid-Atllantic down into the Southeast. As CAPE vales will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear vales oup to 40KT. The lack of forcing and convergence, will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Friday.

sev 629





Thursday, August 27th 2009 Weather Outlook

26 08 2009

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley System, Tropical Storm Danny, Midwest/Great Lakes System

12:15AM

On Thursday, a system will continue to slowly work est across the Ohio Valley into the Plains, while a new system pushes intot he Midwest and Tropical Storm Danny affects the Southeast. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Southeast, as moisture pushes onshore, associated with Tropical Storm Danny whcih will be working through the north side of the Bahamas. With high moisture content, heavy rainfall may be possible. A few storms may also become severe. As CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 25KT. Limited shear, forcing and instibility will limit the overall coverage and severe potential. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. In the Midwest, a new system will push in from Southern Canada. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes, associated with this system. A few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 1000 J/KG, LI’s of -3 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Limited shear, forcing and instibility will limit the overall coverage and severe potential. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Another system will continue to slowly push through the Ohio valley back into the Plains. Showers and storms will be lickley across portions of the Ohio Valley, Plains and Mississippi Valley, associated with this system. High moisture content near the frotn will provide a heavy rain and floodign potential. A few storms may become severe near the cold front in portions of the Mississippi Valley and Plains. As CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values uo to 35KT. Limited shear and forcing will limit the overall coverage and severe potential. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Thursday.

sev 628





Wednesday, August 26th 2009 Weather Outlook

25 08 2009

Wednesday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/Great Lakes System

12:15AM

On Wednesday, a system will push into the Great Lakes. Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. A few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. The lack of shear and forcing will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. In the Great Lakes a system will push through, bringing a chance of showers and storms to portions of the Plains and Great Lakes. Clusters of showers and storms will be ongoign near the cold frotn from Michigan down into Kansas during th eMonring. These storms will push eastward as they weaken by Afternoon. In the wake of these storms, new storms will develop during the Aftenroon and Evening near the cold front from the lower Great Lakes into the Plains. Some of the storms may become severe in portions of the Plains, as CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. The lack of forcing will limit the overall severe threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. the main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday.

sev 627