Friday, July 24th 2009 Weather Outlook

24 07 2009

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlanic/Southeast System, Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will push through the Northeast, while a system pushes through the Midwest. Heavy rain will be likely in the Northern portions of the Northeast, as a tropical system quickly pushes through. Further south, another system will push into the Northeast. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New York, Conneticut, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Deleware, Mary Land, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. Severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold fron from New York down into South carolina. These storms will push eastward into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in.  The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Midwest, a system will push through. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Plains, associated with this system. There is a moderate risk for severe storms in portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.With a slight risk for severe storms over portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska. Severe storms will be ongoing in the Morning, in the Minneapolis area. These storms will push southeast into the Afternoon with a continued severe threat. In the wake of this complex, CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -12 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along outflow boundaries from the Morning complex and along the cold front from Wisconsin back into Nebraska. With ample shear, supercells are likely. There may be an enhanced tornado potential in Southwest Wisconsin, Northwest Illinois and Eastern Iowa where higher helicity values will be found. These storms will push southeastward into the Evening. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS in portions of Illinois and Iowa and continue southeast into the Night with a continued severe threat. There will be an enhance wind damage potential as theMCS forms and progresses southeast, with 50KT 0-6KM winds aloft. Thr main threats form the severe storms will be hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes. In the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may beocme severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Friday.

sev 580


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