Sunday, July 19th 2009 Severe Weather Outlook

19 07 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; West/Plains System, Gulf Coast/Southeast System, Great Lakes System

12:00PM

On Sunday, a weak disturbance will push through the Gulf Coast, while a system oushes towards the Plains. Showers and sotrms will be likely across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast, as a weak disturbance moves along a frontal boundary retreating northward over the area. With CAPe values around 1500 J/Kg, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT, a few storms may become severe. Limied shear, forcing and instibility will limit the threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across the Great Lakes, an upper low will continue to affect the area, bringing the chance of showers and storms to some areas. In the West, a system will push towards the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the West and Plains, associated with this system. With CAPE values around 3500 J/Kg, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-60KT, some storms may become severe along and ahead of the cold front in the Western Plains and Front Range. Limited forcing will limit the coverage of the severe storms, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across portions of the West, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Sunday.

sev 573


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