Saturday, August 1st 2009 Weather Outlook

31 07 2009

Saturday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Plains System, Mid-Atlantic/Southeast System

12:30AM

On Satuday, a system will continue to affect the Southeast, while a system pushes into the Great Lakes. In portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlnatic, showers and storms will be likely along and near the tail end a frontal boundary associated with a departing system. A few of the storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s o f-5 and Effective Bulk Shear value sup to 35KT. Limited shear and forcing will limit the overall coverage and threat. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolaed tornado. In the Great Lakes, a system will push through. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, associated witht his system. Along the northern portions of the cold front from Wisconsin down into Missouri, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -3 and Effective Bulk shear values up to 45KT. In the wake of Morning convection, storms will develop along the cold front in the Afternoon, some of which may be severe. Limited instibility will limit the coverage and threat. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further south along the front in the Mid to Southern Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, some storms will become severe. A weakening MCS will move through during the Morning. Ahead of this weakening complex; CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Storms will will re-strenghten, while others develop ahead of the cold front and along outflow boundaries left over from Morning convection. These storms will push east through the Evening, possibly forming into an MCS across portions of Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. This complex would continue to push southeastward into the Night, as it weakens. This area has been dropped from the slight risk de to limited forcing, limited shear and widespread Morning convective debris. The main threats from the any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Saturday.

sev 590





Friday, July 31st 2009 Weather Outlook

31 07 2009

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Gulf Coast System, Plains/Midwest System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will push through the Northeast, while a system pushes through the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Gulf Coast, associated with a system pushing through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Conneticut, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Deleware, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina. A large area of showers and storms will be pushing northeast along a cold front from New York down into the Carolinas in the Morning. Ahead of this complex; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bilk Shear values up to 55KT. Severe storms will develop ahead of a cold front from New York down into the Carolinas during the early Afternoon. These storms will push eastward through the day. The storms will push offshore or weaken as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats fromt he severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further southwest along the front from Georiga back into Texas, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 3000 J/Kg, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. The lack of shear and forcing will limit the coverage and overall threat. This will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Plains a system will push through, bringing a chance of showers an storms to the Plains and Midwest. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of South dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. CAPE values will be up to 3500 J/KG, LI’s up to -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along a cold front from South Dakota down into New Mexico. These storms will quickly form into a squall line as the push eastward into the Evening and overnight. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In portions of the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Friday.

sev 589





Thursday, July 30th 2009 Weather Outlook

30 07 2009

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Midwest/Great Lakes System, Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley/Southeast/Missisisppi Valley/Plains System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will push into the Great Lakes, while a system copntinues to affect area from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest, as a system pushes through. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. From the Northeast into the Southern Plains, showers and storms will be likely along or near a frontal boundary in the area. A disturbance will move along theis front across portions of the Missisisppi Valley, which will increase the severe thunderstorms threat. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennesse and Arkansas. A weakening MCS will be moving eastward across portions of Texas and Oklahoma in the Morning. A well developed MCV from the Morning storms complex, will move into Arkansas by Afternoon.  Ahead of this weakening complex in the Afternoon; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-55KT. Severe storms will develop along the outflow boundary and MCV from the Morning complex. These storms will push eastward into the Evening. There iwll be an enhanced tornado threat along and near where the MCV tracks from Arkansas into Tennessee, as helicity reading will be higher. The storms may from into another MCS across portions of Tennessee and Alabama, and push northeast overnight with an isolated severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, haila nd a few tornadoes. Further west along the front from Texas into New Mexico, some storms may become severe. as CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon near the from with aide from an upsloap flow in New Mexico. These storms will push southeast into West Texas into the Night with some severe potential. Limited forcing will limit the coverage and overall threat. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging wind, hail and na isolated tornado. In the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.

sev 588





Wednesday, July 29th 2009 Weather Outlook

29 07 2009

Wednesday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Mississippi Valley/Plains System, Plains System

12:00PM

On Wednesday, a system will push through the Northeast, while a system pushes into the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southern Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, associated with a system pusing through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, Conneticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. Across the northern portion of the cold frotn from New York down into Virginia, a large area of showers and storms will be push throught he area through the day. Ahead of this complex, CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon ahead of the large complex of showers and storms. These severe storms and large complex of non-severe storms, will push eastward through the day. The severe threat will diminish during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further south along the front from the Carolinas into Arkansas and Louisiana, some storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2000  J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. The lack of shear, forcing and instibility will limit the coverage and overall threat. this will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further west along the front from Texas and Oklahoma back into New Mexico and Colorado; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-55KT. Severe storms will develop along or near the front and with the aid of an upsloap flow in portions of New Mexico and Colorado. These storms will push sputheastward into the Evening. Storms may grow upscale into and MCS across portions of Oklahoma and Texas, and continue southeast overnight with a continued severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging wind, hail and a few tornadoes. In the Plains and Midwest, a system will push through the area bringing the chance of showers and storms. With limited instibility, forcing and shear, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be possible. With limited instibility, shear and forcing, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Wednesday.

sev 587





Tuesday, July 28th 2009 Weather Outlook

28 07 2009

Tuesdays’ Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southeast/Plains/Mississippi Valley System, High Plains System

12:00PM

On Tuesday, a system will push through the Great Lakes, while a system pushes southeast through the High Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Great Lakes, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley and Plains, associated with a system pushing through the Great Lakes. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico and Colorado. Along the northern portion of the cold front from Michigan down into Missouri, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Limited instibility, shear and forcing will limit the overall coverage and threat. This will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further south along the front from Kansas and Oklahoma into Colorado and New Mexico; CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-55KT.  Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along and near the front in KAnsas and Colorado. These storms will push southeast into the Evening. Storms may then grow upscale into one or two MCS’s and continue southeastward overnight with some severe threat. The main risks from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In portions of the Mississippi Valley and Southeast, a weak disturbance will move through the area on the southern edge of the system in the Great Lakes. A few storms may become severe, as CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. The lack of forcing and shear will limit the overall coverage and threat. This will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the High Plains, a system will move southeast from southern Canada. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being haila nd damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

sev 586





Monday, July 27th 2009 Weather Outlook

27 07 2009

Northeast/Southeast/Arklatex System, Great Lakes/ Plains System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will push through the Northeast, while a system pushes through into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Arklatex region, assocaited with a system pushing through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Maine, New Hampshire, vermont, New York, Conneticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, North Carolina and South Carolina. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front from Maine down into the Carolina’s. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore or weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further west along the front from Georiga into Texas, some storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Limited forcing and convection through the day will limit the threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severw will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Great Lakes, a system will push in from the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the great Lakes and Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for sever storms in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado. Across northern portions of the cold frotn in the Northenr Great Lakes, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -3 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-50KT. Limited instiblity will limit the coverage and threat. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severw will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Along the front in portions of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin; CAPE values will eb around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Severe storms willdevelop across portions of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa in the Afternoon. These storms will push southeast into the Evening. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS across portions of Wisconsin and Illinois, as it pushes southeast and weakens overnight. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. Further west along the from from Nebraska into Wyoming; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. Severe storms will develop in the afternoon with aid of an upsloap flow in Colorado and Wyomign, and along or near the cold front in Nebrask and Kansas. Thes torsm will push eastward into the Evening, before weakenign overnight as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Inter-Mountain West, afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday.

sev 585





Sunday, July 26th 2009 Weather Outlook

26 07 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Southern Mississippi Valley System, High Plains System

12:00PM

On Sunday, a system will push into the Northeast, while a system pushes through the High Plains. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Southeast and Southern Mississippi Valley, associated with a system pusing into the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New Hampshire, Wermont, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland and Virginia. CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 25-50KT. Severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front from New York down into Virginia. These storms will push eastward into the Evening before moving offshore or weakening as idurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further southwest along the front from the Carolinas back into Texas, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. The lack of forcing and lower shear, will limit the overall threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. In the High Plains, a system will move through the area bringing a chance of showers and storms. Some of the storms may become severe across portions of the area. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Shear values up to 45KT. Limited forcing and lower instibility will limit the overall threat and coverage. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. In portions of the Desert Southwest and Inter-Mountain West, Afternoon and Evening showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, shear and forcing, a few storms may be severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Sunday.

sev 584