Tuesday, June 30th 2009 Weather Outlook

30 06 2009

Tuesday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Plains System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Tuesday, a system will cotninue to sit across the Great Lakes, while a system develop in the west and Plains. An upper low will continue to sit over the Great Lakes, showers are likely across the area associated with this system. A disturbance will rotate in around the upper low through the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this disturbance from the Northeast down intot he Southern Plains. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Conneticut Massachusetts, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. Near the disturbance in the Northeast; CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms willd evelop during the late Morning and early Afternoon across the area. These storms will push northeast through the day, before weakening as they push into stable air. Further south along the front from Kentucky back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop from Kentcuky back into Texas during the Afternoon. These storms will push southeast through the day, before wekaening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damagign winds and hail. In the West and Plains, a stationary boundary will continue to be in place across the area, a system will also begin to develop across the area. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with a developing system int he area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop along and near a stationary boundary from Montana back down into the Panhandle of Texas. These storms will push southeast into the Evening, before wakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across portions of Florida, a front will be moving through, bringing showers and storms to the area. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

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