Thursday, June 18th 2009 Weather Outlook

19 06 2009

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; West/Plains/Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southeast System, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will push eastward into the Plains, while a system pushes through the Northeast. Across the Plains, a system will push eastward through the rgion. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the west, Plains, Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Southeast, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennesse, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Virginia. In the Morning, an MCS will be pushing through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this complex in the Southeast and Ohio Valley, CAPE values will be around 4000 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50Kt. This complex, will push southeast through the day with a severe threat, before weakening during the Evening across the Southeast. There is an enhanced potenital of wid damage with this complex. Another MCS will be ongoing in Iowa in the Morning. this complex will push southeast intot he Ohio Valley during the day, with a severe threat as it puses into a similar enviromnet as the other MCS downstream. In the Dakotas and Nebraska, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-70KT. This alogn with this system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from North Dakota down into Nebraska. These storms will push eastward into the Evening. Storms in Nebraska may then form into an MCS as a disturbance moves in. This complex will push eastward overnight, with a continued severe threat. Across Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin; CAPE values will be around 6000 J/Kg, LI’s of -13 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-70KT. Severe storms will develop in the Evening along a warm front in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa. these storms will form into and MCS, and psuh southeast through the Night with a continued severe threat. Further south along the dry line and cold front from Kansas down into Texas; CAPE values iwll be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear value sup to 45KT. Severe storms will develop in the afternoon. These storms will push northeast into the Evening, before weakening. The main threats from the severe storms ill be damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. In portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, showers and storms will be likely as a system pushes through the area. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.

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