Tuesday, June 30th 2009 Weather Outlook

30 06 2009

Tuesday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Plains System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Tuesday, a system will cotninue to sit across the Great Lakes, while a system develop in the west and Plains. An upper low will continue to sit over the Great Lakes, showers are likely across the area associated with this system. A disturbance will rotate in around the upper low through the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this disturbance from the Northeast down intot he Southern Plains. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Conneticut Massachusetts, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. Near the disturbance in the Northeast; CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms willd evelop during the late Morning and early Afternoon across the area. These storms will push northeast through the day, before weakening as they push into stable air. Further south along the front from Kentucky back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop from Kentcuky back into Texas during the Afternoon. These storms will push southeast through the day, before wekaening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damagign winds and hail. In the West and Plains, a stationary boundary will continue to be in place across the area, a system will also begin to develop across the area. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with a developing system int he area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop along and near a stationary boundary from Montana back down into the Panhandle of Texas. These storms will push southeast into the Evening, before wakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across portions of Florida, a front will be moving through, bringing showers and storms to the area. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

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Monday, June 29th 2009 Weather Outlook

28 06 2009

Monday’s Weather Outlook; West/Plains System, Southeast/Northeast/Great Lakes System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will continue to sit across the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Southeast, Northeast and Great Lakes, as a vertically stacked low slowly moves through the Great Lakes. A few storms may become severe in portions of South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Georiga, Mississippi, Lousiana and Texas. CAPE values will be around 4000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. The lack of shear and major forcing will lead to a limited severe threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Across portions of the West and Plains, a stationary boundary will be sitting over portions of the area. Some of the storms may become severe across portions of the West and Plains. CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. the lack of any system and associated forcing will limit the severe threat, this will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Monday.

sev 551





Sunday, June 28th 2009 Weather Outlook

27 06 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio valley/Southeast/Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains System

11:36PM

On Sunday, a system will push slowly eastward into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southeast, Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georiga, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennesse, Kentucky and West Virginia. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along a cold front, from Kentucky down into Arkansas. Storms will push eastward through the day and into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats fromt he severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further west along the tail end of the cold front in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and Nebraska some severe storms will be possible. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values of up to 45Kt. Less instibility and a more limited severe threat will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threat from any storms that do become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Sunday.

sev 550





Saturday, June 27th 2009 Weather Oulook

26 06 2009

Saturday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/Great Lakes/Mississippi valley System, Northeeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast System

12:00AM

On Saturday, a system will continue to push through the Northeast, while a system pushes through the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely over portions o fthe Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as a system continues to push through the Northeast. along the cold front from the nrotheast down into the Southeast, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon along and ahead of the cold front from the Northeast down into the Southeast and also on the backside of the system in the Interior Northeast, some of the storms may become severe. With the main threats being haila nd damaging winds. The main disturbance associated with this system will have moved offshore, this will limit the severe threat and preclude a slight risk from being issued. Another system will be pushing eastward across the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Plains, Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s o f-9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-60KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along the cold front from Wisconsin down into Oklahoma, in the form of supercells and bowing line segments. These storsm will push eastward through the Evening, before weakening overnight as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damagingn winds, hail and a few tornadoes. On the backside of the system in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota; CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-60KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon, as colder air aloft works in behind the main system. Some of the stroms may become severe, with the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Saturday.

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Friday, June 26th 2009 Weather Outlook

26 06 2009

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will push into the Northeast, while a system pushes into the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohhio Valley, as a system pushes through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Maine, New Hampshie, Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Deleware, Maryland and Virginia. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. This along with the system in the regions, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the afternoon along the cold front from Maine down into Pennsylvania, in the form of supercells and bowing line segment. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore or weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further southwest, along the tail end of the cold front in the Ohio Valley, isolated severe storms will be likely. The lack of shear will limit the severe weather potential, and thus will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any stroms that do become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of South Caorlina, North Carolina, Georiga and Florida. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from North Carolina down into Florida along the sea breeze and convergence boundary. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore during the Evening. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, a system will push eastward towards the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Waest and Plains associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota and Iowa. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -13 and effective Bulk Shear values of 35-75KT. This along with a system in the region, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along the cold front from North Dakota down into Colorado, in the form of supercells and bowing line segments. These storms will psuh eastward into the Evening, storms may then from into one or more MCS’s from North Dakota down into Nebraska. The MCS(s) will continue to push eastward overnight with a severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and some tornadoes. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Friday.

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Thursday, June 25th 2009 Weather Outlook

25 06 2009

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will push through the Great Lakes, while a system pushes through the West. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York. CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with a system pushing through will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Michigan through Ohio and up into New York. These storms will push eastward through the day and into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. Further west across portions of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois, the lack of shear and convergence will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hial and an isoalted tornado. Across the Gulf Coast, afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. These storms will diminish during the evening, as diurnal cooling sets in. In the West, a system will push through the region. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the West and Plains associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-65KT. This alogn with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Montana down through the Dakotas and into Colorado and Kansas. these storms will push eastward into the Evening. Storms may then form into an MCS over portions of Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas, which will push eastward overnight as it weakens. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.

sev 546





Wednesday, June 24th 2009 Weather Outlook

23 06 2009

Wednesday’s Weather Outlook; West/Plains/Mississippi valley/Great Lakes/Southeast System, Northeast System

12:30AM

On Wednesday, a system will continue to affect the Northeast Coast, while a system continues to push through the Plains. Showers and isolated storms will be possible along the Northeast Coast, as a system continues to push along the coast. In the Plains a system will continue to push eastward, bringing showers and storms to portions of the West, Plains, Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley and Southeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of Nebraska, Kansas,Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois. CAPE values will be around 5000 J/KG, LI’s of -12 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. This along with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Sstorms will develop in the Afternoon from Nebraska and the Dakotas back into Iowa and Missouri. These storms would push eastward into the Evening, storms may form into one or two MCS’s and continue eastward over night with a severe threat. The main threat from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across the Great Lakes; CAPE values iwll be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk shear values up to 35KT. Some storms may become severe across the area. The lack of shear will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Across portions of the Mississippi Valley and Southeast; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Given the lack of shear, the severe threat will remain limited, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms the may become severe, will be hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Wednesday.

sev 545





Tuesday, June 23rd 2009 Weather Outlook

23 06 2009

Tuesday’s Weather Outlook; Plaind/West, Mississippi Valley/Southeast System, Northeast System

12:00PM

On Tuesday, a system will push eastward into the Plains, while a system continue to affect the Atlantic Coast. Showers and isolated storms will be possible along the Northeast Coast. As a system continues to move along the Atlantic Coast. In the Plains, a system will psuhe astward through the regino. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the West, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Southeast associated with this system .There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. An MCS will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska in the Morning. This complex will push east-southeast through the day, with a continued severe threat. CAPE values ahead of the coplex will be around 8000 J/KG, LI’s of -14 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT will aid in a severe threat with this complex. The complex will begin to weaken during the Evening across Illinois and Missouri, as the complex leaves the instibility axis. Further west from Colorado into Nebraska; CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -12 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. This alogn with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Colorado into Nebraska. these storms may grow upscale into an MCS across Nebraska. This complex may continue eastward through the Night. Across the Mississippi Valley and Southeast from Missouri into Florida, CAPE values will be around 4000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values oup to 35KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along and near a stationary boundary. These storms will push southeast into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. Below is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

sev 544





Monday, June 22nd 2009 Weather Outlook

23 06 2009

Monday’s Weather Outlook, West/Plains/Ohio Valley/Southeast System, Mid-atlantic System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will continue to sit off of the Atlantic Coast, while a system continues to affect the West and Plains. Showers and storms will be possible over portions of the Mid-Atlantic, as a system moves along the Coast. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. Weith the main threats being hail and damaging winds. In the West and Plains, a system will continue to affect the regions. Showers and storms will be possible in portions of the Plains and West with this system. Showers and storms will also be likely in portions of the Ohio Valley and Southeast along a stationary boundary, witha “Ring Of Fire” pattern still in place. As a dome of heat will still be found across the Central US, with widespread temperatures in the 90’s, with heat indicies in the 100’s. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennesse, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georiga and Florida. In the Western Plains from the Dakotas down into Colorado; CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from the Dakotas down into Colorado. these storms will push eastward into the Evening. Storms then may form into and MCS in portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, and continue to push eastward overnight with a severe threat. In portions of the Ohio Valley and Southeast from Indiana into Florida; a MCS will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of the Ohio Valley. This complex will push southeast through the day with a severe threat. Other severe storms will develop along a stationary boundary in the area. CAPE values around 4000 J/KS, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT will aid in the severe potential. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday.

sev 543





Sunday, June 21st 2009 Weather Outlook

22 06 2009

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/West System, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast System

12:00PM

On Sunday, a system will continue to affect the West and Plains, while a system continues to affect the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Showers and isolated storms will be possible along costal area along the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast, as a system sits offshore. A “Ring Of Fire” apttern will take hold across much of the country. As a dome of heat will be in place across portiosn of the Southern and Centrla portions of the country, allowing disturbances to ride along the northern side of the dome of heat. In the West and Plains, a system will continue to affect affects the regiopns with showers and storms. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Across Iowa and Minnesota; CAPE values will be around 5000 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. This along with the system in the region, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon across Southern Minnesota and Iowa. These storms will push eastward into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. Across the Inter-Mountain West, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. This along with the system int he region, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop across the area during the Afternoon. These storms will push across the risk area through the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main risk from the severe storms will be hail, damagign winds and some tornadoes. Across portions of the Northern Plains, Western Ohio Valley and Southeast, with limited instibility a few storms may become severe. with the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Sunday.

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