Monday, March 23rd 2009 Weather Outlook

23 03 2009

Monday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/West/Great Lakes System


On Monday, a system will push northeast into the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over much of the Plains and Great Lakes. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma. CAPE values will be around 1000-1500, Effective Bulk Shear around 55KT, and dew points in the 50’s and 60’s. This along with a front moving through, will help the storms become severe. Storms will first develop in the Afternoon over portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, where the CAP will weaken earlier in the day. Storms will then fire late in the Afternoon or Evening in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storm mode should start out as discrete cells, before turing into more of a squall line, as the storms continue eastward through the Night. The main threats will be hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes. In the Northern Plains and parts of the higher elevations of the West, snow will be likely. Heavy accumulations are likely, with over 12 inches expected in some areas. Winds over 30MPH will also be a problem, creating blizzard conditions. Below is the severe weather and snowfall outlook for Monday.






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