Monday, July 20th 2009 Weather Outlook

Monday’s Weather Outlook; Ohio Valley/Southeast/Mid-Atlantic System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will push through the Southeast, while a system pushes through the Plains. Showers and storms will be likel yover portions of the Ohio Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, as a weak system pushes northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Kentucky, Tennesse, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. CAPE values will be around 2000 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. Severe storms will develop during the early Afternoon across the warm sector ahead of the system. These storms will push northeast through the day, before weakenign in the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Further south along the cold front from South Caorlina into Florida, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 2000 J/Kg, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30KT. The limited instibility, shear and forcing will limit the threat., which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. In the Plains, a system will push through the region. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this system in portions of the Plains, Midwest and West. There is a moderate risk for severe storms across portions of Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma. With a slight risk across portions of South dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri.Along the cold front in the Dakotas and Minnesota, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 1000 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and efective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. The limited instibility, shear and forcing will limit the threat., which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Further south along the cold front from South Dakota into Colorado and along the warm fron from Nebraska down into Arkansas; CAPE values will be around 3500 J/Kg, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 35-70KT. During the Afternoon, severe storms will develop along and ahead of the cold front and near the warm front. These storms will push southeast into the Evening. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS along and north of the warm front across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the evening. This complex will continue southeastward through the Night, with a continued severe threat. Higher shear and helicity values may enhance the severe potential near the warmf ront from Nebraska down through Kansas and Oklahoma. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail adn some tornadoes. Further south along the warm front in portions of Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana, a few storms may become severe. As CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Limited shear and forcing will limit the coverage, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West and Desert Southwest, with limited instibility. A few storms may become severe, with the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday.