Friday, July 17th 2009 Weather Outlook

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlatnic/southeast/Gulf Coast/Western Plains System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will slowly continue to work through the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likel yin portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Western Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New York, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Some storms may become severe in portions along the cold front from the Northeast back into Eastern Tennesse. Storms will develop along a second weak front. CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -4 and effective Bulk shear values of 25-55KT. Given the fact these storms will have less be moving through less instibility and an area where storms moved through earlier in the day, the risk will be limited. Which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Along the cold front from New York down into the Carolinas; CAPE values will be around 4000 J/Kd, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. Clusters of storms will be ongoing across portions of the area in the Morning, these storms will re-strengthen and become severe as they push eastward across the risk area. Other severe storms will develop along and ahead of the cold front in the area. The main threats from the severe sotrm siwll be damaging winds, haila nd an isolated tornado. Alogn the cold front from Georiga back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s o f-8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Given the instibility, a few sotmrs may become severe. Limited coverage due to early convection, limited shear and forcing will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any storms that become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. Further west along the front from Texas up into Nebraska; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/Kg, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 35-65KT. A cluster of severe storms will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of Nebraska. These storms will push southward along the front through the day. The storms may form into an MCS during the Evening as the press southward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region. Other severe storms will develop in New Mexico and Colorado with an upsloap flow and front in place. The main threats fromt he severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the Desert Southwest, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility and forcing, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Friday.