Thursday, July 16th 2009 Weather Outlook

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mississippi Valley/Southeast/Plains System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will slolwy push through the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this system in portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Mississippi Valley and Plains. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Conneticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, Virginia, North Caorlina, South Carolina, Georiga, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennesse, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas. Along the cold front across the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Severe storms will develop along the cold front from New York down into Virginia during the Afternoon. these storms will push eastward intot he Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. Further southwest along the frotn from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and Southeast; CAPE values will be up to 4500 J/Kg, LI’s up to -11 and Effecitve Bulk Shear values of 25-50KT. Some storms may be ongoing across portions of the area during the Morning, a few of which may be severe. These storms will quickly weaken by Afternoon. New severe storms will develop along and near a cold fron from Georiga back west into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. These storms will push southeast into the Evening. Storms may from into one or more MCS’s and continue southeast through the Night with a continued severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern Midwest, a weak disturbance will quickly move through. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of Illinois, Indiana and Missouri. CAPE values will be up to 1500 J/Kg, LI’s up to -5 and Effective Bulk Shear valeus of 25-45KT. Storms will develop during the Afternoon form Illinois back into Missouri along a weak frotn. These storms will race eastward into the Evening, before weakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging, hail and an isoalted tornado. Across portions of the Desert Southeast and Front Range, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instiblity, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.