Thursday, July 9th 2009 Weather Outlook

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Southeast System, West/Plains/Midwest System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will continue to affect the Southeast, while a system pushed through the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Southeast, near and along a frontal boundary in the area. CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shea values up to 35KT. Given the instibility, some of the storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. The limited instibility, weak shear and forcing will limit the severe threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. In the Plains, a system will slowly move across the region. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the Plains, West and Midwest associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Iowa and Missouri. An MCS will be ongoing in the Morning across northeastern Iowa, storms associated with this complex will be severe. This complex will push southeast through the day, weakening as it enters northern Missouri, as it pushes into an area that has a stronger CAP. By Afternoon CAPE valeus will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -10 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-5KT. This along with the system in the area, will help new severe storms develop near the South dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska border area during the late Afternoon. These storms will develop into another MCS, which will push eastward into the Night, as it weakens. There is a possibility for another complex of storms to develop on the edge of the CAP and higher instibility, near the Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa border region during Thursday Night. If this occurs, some of the storms will be severe as the complex works in a southeast direction. The main threats from the severe storms will be hail, damaging winds and an isoalted tornado. Along the northern portion of the cold fron in Minnesota and Wisconsin; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. Some severe storms will be possible, though limited coverage is expected in the wake of Morning storms. This will preclude a slight risk in this area. The main threats from any storms that become sever ein this area, will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Along the Front range, severe storms will develop during the Evening as the CAP weakens. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-60KT. The main threats from the severe storms will be hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.