Monday, July 6th 2009 Weather Outlook

Monday’s Weather Outlook; Southeast System, Northeast System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will push into the Northeast, while a system continues to affect the Southeast and a system pushes through the West. Showers and storms will be possible over portions of the Northeast, as a trough pushes through the area. CAPE values iwll be around 1000 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. This along with the trough, will help a few storms become severe. Limited instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any severe storms will be damaging winds and hail. Across the Southeast, a system will continue to slowly push through. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the area, associated with this system. CAPE vlaues will be around 2000 J/KG< LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30KT. This along with the system, will help a few storms become severe. Limited forcing, shear, instibility and Morning convection will limit the severe threat, which will preclude a slight rsik from being issued. The main threats from any severe storms will be damaging winds and hail. In the West, a system will slowly push through the region. Showers and storms associated with this system will be likley in portions of the West and Plains. there is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of New MExico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho and Montana. Across the Front Range, from Wyoming and Nebraska down into Texas and NEw Mexico; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. This along with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Wyoming down into Eastern New Mexico. These storms will push eastward into the evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. Further north, in the High Plains across portions of Montana, Wyoming and Idaho; CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT.  This along with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storm siwll develop in the Afternoon, across portions of Western Montana and Northern Idaho. Storms shold take shape into a squall line feature, as they race eastward into the evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isoalted tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday.