4th Of July Outlook; Northeast System, West/Plains/Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley System, Midwest System
12:15AM
On Saturday, a system will exit the Northeast, while a system pushes eastward into the Mississippi Valley, while a weak system moves into the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Upper Northeast, as an upper level low finally exits the region. In the Mississippi valley, a system will move in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the West, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennesse, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois and Indiana. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and effective Bulk Shear values oup to 55KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Showers and storms will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of the area. In the wake of this activity, severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Missouri back down into Texas. Stroms will push eastward into the Night, before weakening. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the West, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across the Midwest, a weak trough will work in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the area, associated with this system. CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to -4. Storms will develop in the Afternoon acorss portions of the Midwest, as the trough moves in. Given the instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. The lack of instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Below is the outlook for the 4th Of July.
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