Saturday, July 4th 2009 Weather Outlook

4th Of July Outlook; Northeast System, West/Plains/Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley System, Midwest System

12:15AM

On Saturday, a system will exit the Northeast, while a system pushes eastward into the Mississippi Valley, while a weak system moves into the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Upper Northeast, as an upper level low finally exits the region. In the Mississippi valley, a system will move in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the West, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennesse, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois and Indiana. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and effective Bulk Shear values oup to 55KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Showers and storms will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of the area. In the wake of this activity, severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Missouri back down into Texas. Stroms will push eastward into the Night, before weakening. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the West, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across the Midwest, a weak trough will work in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the area, associated with this system. CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to -4. Storms will develop in the Afternoon acorss portions of the Midwest, as the trough moves in. Given the instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. The lack of instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Below is the outlook for the 4th Of July.

Friday, July 3rd 2009 Weather Outlook

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Gulf Coast System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will begin to exit the Northeast, while a system pushes into the Plains. The persistant upper low that has been sitting over the Great Lakes and Northeast will finally begin to exit the Northeast. Showers and storms will be possible associated with this system in portions of the Northeast and along the cold front near the Gulf Coast. A few storms may become severe in portions of the Northeast. CAPE values will be around 1500 j/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Stroms will develop across portions of New York and Pennsylvania during the early Afternoon. These storms will push eastward and other storms will develop eastwar through the day, before weakening in the Evenng as diurnal cooling sets in. Limited instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Across portions of the Gulf Coast, from Florida back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30KT. Storms will develop along a weak cold front from Florida back into Southeastern Texas. storms will push southeast through the evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The lack of shear will limit the severe threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Though, if storms can interact with any sea breeze or convergence boundaries, the severe threat may be enhanced which may lead to an upgrade to a slight risk. The main threats from any storms that de become severe will be hail and damaging winds. In the Plains, a system will push eastward into the region. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the West and Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 55KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon across portions of Eastern Wyoming, Southern South Dakota, Northeastern Colorado Nebrska and Kansas. These storms will push eastward into thr Evening. Storms may then form into an MCS, and continue eastward through the Night with a limited severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility. A few storms may become severe, with the main threats being hail and damaging winds.