Saturday, July 4th 2009 Weather Outlook

4th Of July Outlook; Northeast System, West/Plains/Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley System, Midwest System

12:15AM

On Saturday, a system will exit the Northeast, while a system pushes eastward into the Mississippi Valley, while a weak system moves into the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Upper Northeast, as an upper level low finally exits the region. In the Mississippi valley, a system will move in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the West, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennesse, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois and Indiana. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and effective Bulk Shear values oup to 55KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Showers and storms will be ongoing in the Morning across portions of the area. In the wake of this activity, severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Missouri back down into Texas. Stroms will push eastward into the Night, before weakening. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the West, Afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across the Midwest, a weak trough will work in from the west. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the area, associated with this system. CAPE values will be around 1000 J/Kg, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to -4. Storms will develop in the Afternoon acorss portions of the Midwest, as the trough moves in. Given the instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. The lack of instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Below is the outlook for the 4th Of July.

Friday, July 3rd 2009 Weather Outlook

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Gulf Coast System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will begin to exit the Northeast, while a system pushes into the Plains. The persistant upper low that has been sitting over the Great Lakes and Northeast will finally begin to exit the Northeast. Showers and storms will be possible associated with this system in portions of the Northeast and along the cold front near the Gulf Coast. A few storms may become severe in portions of the Northeast. CAPE values will be around 1500 j/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. Stroms will develop across portions of New York and Pennsylvania during the early Afternoon. These storms will push eastward and other storms will develop eastwar through the day, before weakening in the Evenng as diurnal cooling sets in. Limited instibility will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Across portions of the Gulf Coast, from Florida back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 3000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 30KT. Storms will develop along a weak cold front from Florida back into Southeastern Texas. storms will push southeast through the evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The lack of shear will limit the severe threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Though, if storms can interact with any sea breeze or convergence boundaries, the severe threat may be enhanced which may lead to an upgrade to a slight risk. The main threats from any storms that de become severe will be hail and damaging winds. In the Plains, a system will push eastward into the region. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the West and Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/Kg, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 55KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon across portions of Eastern Wyoming, Southern South Dakota, Northeastern Colorado Nebrska and Kansas. These storms will push eastward into thr Evening. Storms may then form into an MCS, and continue eastward through the Night with a limited severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility. A few storms may become severe, with the main threats being hail and damaging winds.

Thursday, July 2nd 2009 Weather Outlook

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Gulf Coast System, West/Plains System

12:15AM

On Thursday, a system will slowly push through the Northeast, while a system slowly pushes across the West. An upper level low will push eastward into the Northeast. A disturbance will continue to rotate around the upper low, through the Northeat. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this upper low across portions of the Northeast and Gulf Coast. A few storms may become severe across portions of the Northeast. In portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York; CAPE values will be around 1000 J/KG, LI’s of -3 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. The lack of instibility will limit the severe threat. Storms will develop from from New Hampshire down through New York and Pennsylvanian in the late Morning to early Afternoon. These storms will push eastward through the day, before weakening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Florida, Georiga, Alabama, Lousiana and Mississippi; CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. Severe storms will develop along a front from Southwestern South Carolina back down into Southern Louisiana. These storms will push southeast into the Evening, before pushing offshore. The main threats from any storms that become severe will be damaging winds and hail. In the West, a system will slowly push eastward. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this system across portions of the West and Plains. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. Severe storms will develop during the Afternoon from Montana down into Colorado. These storms will push eastward into the Evening. Storms may then from into and MCS across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. This complex will continue eastward overnight, with storm storms being severe. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.

Wednesday, July 1st 2009 Weather Outlook

Wednesday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast System, Plains/West System

12:00PM

On Wednesday, a system will continue to sit over the Great Lakes and Northeast, while a system continue to develop over the West. An upper low will continue to sit over the Northeast and Great Lakes. A disturbance will continue to rotate around the upper low, through the Mid-Atlantic. Showers and storms will be possible from the Northeast down into the Southeast associated with this disturbance. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Conneticut, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, Vermont, New Hampshire, North Carolina and South Carolina. CAPE values will be around 2000 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop during the late Morning and early Afternoon from New York back down into South Dakota. These storms will push eastward through the day, before wekaening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds and hail. Across the West, a system will continue to develop across the area. Showers and storms will be likely associated witht his system and a stationary boundary across portions of the area. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. CAPE values will be around 2500 j/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. Severe storms will develop during the Afternoon from Montana down into Northeastern Colorado. These storms will push eastward through the Evening. Storms may then from into and MCS across portions of Western Nebraska. If this complex dvelops, it will push eastward overnight with some storms being severe. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the Southern Plains and Inter-Mountain west, with limited instibility a few sotrms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Wednesday.

Tuesday, June 30th 2009 Weather Outlook

Tuesday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio Valley/Mississippi Valley/Plains System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Tuesday, a system will cotninue to sit across the Great Lakes, while a system develop in the west and Plains. An upper low will continue to sit over the Great Lakes, showers are likely across the area associated with this system. A disturbance will rotate in around the upper low through the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will be likely associated with this disturbance from the Northeast down intot he Southern Plains. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Conneticut Massachusetts, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. Near the disturbance in the Northeast; CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -4 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 40KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms willd evelop during the late Morning and early Afternoon across the area. These storms will push northeast through the day, before weakening as they push into stable air. Further south along the front from Kentucky back into Texas; CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 50KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop from Kentcuky back into Texas during the Afternoon. These storms will push southeast through the day, before wekaening during the Evening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damagign winds and hail. In the West and Plains, a stationary boundary will continue to be in place across the area, a system will also begin to develop across the area. There is a slight risk for severe storms across portions of Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with a developing system int he area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop along and near a stationary boundary from Montana back down into the Panhandle of Texas. These storms will push southeast into the Evening, before wakenign as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Across portions of Florida, a front will be moving through, bringing showers and storms to the area. With limited instibility, a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

Monday, June 29th 2009 Weather Outlook

Monday’s Weather Outlook; West/Plains System, Southeast/Northeast/Great Lakes System

12:00PM

On Monday, a system will continue to sit across the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Southeast, Northeast and Great Lakes, as a vertically stacked low slowly moves through the Great Lakes. A few storms may become severe in portions of South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Georiga, Mississippi, Lousiana and Texas. CAPE values will be around 4000 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 35KT. The lack of shear and major forcing will lead to a limited severe threat, which will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Across portions of the West and Plains, a stationary boundary will be sitting over portions of the area. Some of the storms may become severe across portions of the West and Plains. CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. the lack of any system and associated forcing will limit the severe threat, this will preclude a slight risk from being issued. Below is the thunderstorm outlook for Monday.

Sunday, June 28th 2009 Weather Outlook

Sunday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Northeast/Ohio valley/Southeast/Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains System

11:36PM

On Sunday, a system will push slowly eastward into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southeast, Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georiga, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennesse, Kentucky and West Virginia. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -8 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along a cold front, from Kentucky down into Arkansas. Storms will push eastward through the day and into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats fromt he severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further west along the tail end of the cold front in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and Nebraska some severe storms will be possible. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values of up to 45Kt. Less instibility and a more limited severe threat will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threat from any storms that do become severe will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Sunday.

Saturday, June 27th 2009 Weather Oulook

Saturday’s Weather Outlook; Plains/Great Lakes/Mississippi valley System, Northeeast/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast System

12:00AM

On Saturday, a system will continue to push through the Northeast, while a system pushes through the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely over portions o fthe Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as a system continues to push through the Northeast. along the cold front from the nrotheast down into the Southeast, CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon along and ahead of the cold front from the Northeast down into the Southeast and also on the backside of the system in the Interior Northeast, some of the storms may become severe. With the main threats being haila nd damaging winds. The main disturbance associated with this system will have moved offshore, this will limit the severe threat and preclude a slight risk from being issued. Another system will be pushing eastward across the Midwest. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Plains, Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s o f-9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-60KT. This along with a system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along the cold front from Wisconsin down into Oklahoma, in the form of supercells and bowing line segments. These storsm will push eastward through the Evening, before weakening overnight as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damagingn winds, hail and a few tornadoes. On the backside of the system in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota; CAPE values will be around 1500 J/KG, LI’s of -5 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-60KT. Storms will develop in the Afternoon, as colder air aloft works in behind the main system. Some of the stroms may become severe, with the main threats being hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Saturday.

Friday, June 26th 2009 Weather Outlook

Friday’s Weather Outlook; Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Friday, a system will push into the Northeast, while a system pushes into the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely across portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohhio Valley, as a system pushes through the Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Maine, New Hampshie, Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Deleware, Maryland and Virginia. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -6 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-50KT. This along with the system in the regions, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the afternoon along the cold front from Maine down into Pennsylvania, in the form of supercells and bowing line segment. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore or weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Further southwest, along the tail end of the cold front in the Ohio Valley, isolated severe storms will be likely. The lack of shear will limit the severe weather potential, and thus will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from any stroms that do become severe, will be damaging winds and hail. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of South Caorlina, North Carolina, Georiga and Florida. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values up to 45KT. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from North Carolina down into Florida along the sea breeze and convergence boundary. These storms will push eastward through the day, before pushing offshore during the Evening. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. In the West, a system will push eastward towards the Plains. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Waest and Plains associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota and Iowa. CAPE values will be around 4500 J/KG, LI’s of -13 and effective Bulk Shear values of 35-75KT. This along with a system in the region, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon along the cold front from North Dakota down into Colorado, in the form of supercells and bowing line segments. These storms will psuh eastward into the Evening, storms may then from into one or more MCS’s from North Dakota down into Nebraska. The MCS(s) will continue to push eastward overnight with a severe threat. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and some tornadoes. Across portions of the Inter-Mountain West, with limited instibility a few storms may become severe. With the main threats being hail and damaging winds. Below is the severe weather outlook for Friday.

Thursday, June 25th 2009 Weather Outlook

Thursday’s Weather Outlook; Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast System, West/Plains System

12:00PM

On Thursday, a system will push through the Great Lakes, while a system pushes through the West. Showers and storms will be likely over portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. There is a slight risk for severe storms over portions of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York. CAPE values will be around 3500 J/KG, LI’s of -9 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 20-55KT. This along with a system pushing through will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Michigan through Ohio and up into New York. These storms will push eastward through the day and into the Evening, before weakening as diurnal cooling sets in. Further west across portions of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois, the lack of shear and convergence will preclude a slight risk from being issued. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hial and an isoalted tornado. Across the Gulf Coast, afternoon pop up showers and storms will be likely. These storms will diminish during the evening, as diurnal cooling sets in. In the West, a system will push through the region. Showers and storms will be likely in portions of the West and Plains associated with this system. There is a slight risk for severe storms in portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/KG, LI’s of -7 and Effective Bulk Shear values of 30-65KT. This alogn with the system in the area, will help storms become severe. Severe storms will develop in the Afternoon from Montana down through the Dakotas and into Colorado and Kansas. these storms will push eastward into the Evening. Storms may then form into an MCS over portions of Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas, which will push eastward overnight as it weakens. The main threats from the severe storms will be damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Below is the severe weather outlook for Thursday.